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Quiet Tropics Now, But a Strong El Nino Points to a Wet Valley Winter
Are any tropical storms expected to form in the Gulf and affect Columbus, Georgia?
The National Hurricane Center expects no tropical cyclone to form in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf over the next seven days, so no tropical system is in view for Columbus, Georgia, though a very strong El Nino tilts the odds toward a wetter winter here.
Photo: dumitru bumbu / Pexels
Stand on a dock at Lake Eufaula in the last days of October and the tropics feel a long way off. On paper, they are. In its outlook issued Saturday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center in Miami said tropical cyclone formation is not expected anywhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf during the next seven days. That is the entire basin, all the way through about the end of the first week of November, with nothing being watched at all.
That matters here more than it sounds. Hurricane season runs through November 30, and the storms that form this late in the year usually come together in the western Caribbean or the Gulf rather than far out in the open Atlantic. Those are the ones that reach inland towns like Columbus, Phenix City, Eufaula and Cuthbert as a day of wind and heavy rain. For this week, the Hurricane Center is simply not expecting one to exist. The outlook gets rewritten every morning, so it is worth a second look later in the month.
Part of the reason sits in the Pacific, not the Atlantic. The ocean is in a very strong El Nino, with the index at 2.16. El Nino warms the tropical Pacific and strengthens the upper-level winds that blow across the Atlantic, and strong winds aloft tear developing storms apart before they can organize.
The same pattern does something else, and this is the part that reaches LaGrange, Auburn, Opelika and Hamilton. El Nino strengthens the subtropical jet stream straight across the southern United States, which is the track storm systems follow out of Texas and along the Gulf Coast. In the record, that has usually meant a wetter and often cooler cold season along the Gulf South, with more systems crossing the region. The Climate Prediction Center puts the odds of above-normal precipitation across our area at 60 percent for November, December and January, with temperatures leaning near normal. By February through April, the outlook shows no lean either way.
Any extra rain would land on ground that is already in reasonable shape. Columbus has recorded 43.64 inches of rain so far this year, against a normal of 40.08 inches by this date, and the rivers reflect it. Over the past week the Chattahoochee River in Columbus averaged 93 percent of normal flow for these dates, the river at West Point 97 percent, and the stretch below Lake Eufaula ran at 122 percent. The one gauge running under is Upatoi Creek near Columbus, at 80 percent of normal.
There is a less comfortable side to an El Nino winter. Historically these patterns have also raised the risk of severe weather in the Gulf states during the cool season, and cool-season storms here have a habit of arriving after dark, when the small towns between Manchester, Lumpkin and Tuskegee are asleep. Now, while the tropics are quiet and nothing is pressing, is the easy time to fix that: turn on emergency alerts on your phone, set a weather radio where you can hear it from the bedroom, and decide which interior room of the house everyone goes to. You would rather do it on a calm Saturday than at two in the morning in January.
Right now in Columbus, Georgia
78°Temperature
51°Dew point
39%Humidity
12 mphWind — east
30.22"Pressure
The next seven days
Day
High
Low
Rain
Conditions
TODAY
78°
61°
17%
Mostly Cloudy
SUN
72°
58°
42%
Chance Rain Showers
MON
78°
60°
10%
Partly Sunny
TUE
80°
64°
12%
Partly Sunny
WED
79°
62°
53%
Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
THU
79°
57°
42%
Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
FRI
77°
52°
18%
Slight Chance Rain Showers
Written by the CNAW2 weather desk from CNAW2 weather desk data. Last updated October 31, 2026 at 5:51 PM Eastern. Covering Columbus and Phenix City, Auburn–Opelika, LaGrange, Eufaula and the rest of the 19-county CNAW viewing area.
