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The Tropics Go Quiet as El Niño Tilts the Valley Toward a Wetter Winter
Are any tropical storms expected in the Gulf this week?
No — the National Hurricane Center says tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf for the next seven days, so nothing tropical is headed toward Columbus, Phenix City or Eufaula.
Photo: Tatiana Syrikova / Pexels
The National Hurricane Center's Monday morning outlook runs a single short paragraph, and for anyone between Phenix City and Eufaula it is the easiest kind of reading. Forecasters in Miami wrote that tropical cyclone formation is not expected anywhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf during the next seven days. Not a disturbance with odds attached, not a swirl being watched. Nothing.
That matters more than it sounds in early November. Hurricane season closes on November 30, so a full week with nothing expected takes a real bite out of what is left of it. And the storms that ever reach Cuthbert, Lumpkin or Tuskegee are almost never the ones that stay out over open water. They are the ones that cross the Gulf coast and come inland tired and wide, trailing bands of rain up the river valleys. For now, the map that produces those is blank.
The weather that will shape the next several months is not in the Atlantic at all. It is in the Pacific, where El Niño is running very strong — a reading of 2.16 on the index forecasters watch. Warmer than normal water along the equator feeds energy into the subtropical jet stream, the fast river of air that steers storm systems across the southern United States. When that jet strengthens, it aims more systems straight at the Gulf South. In the historical record that has usually meant a wetter and often cooler cold season here, with more storms crossing the region and a raised risk of severe weather in the Gulf states.
The Climate Prediction Center has put numbers to it. For November, December and January, the outlook gives this part of Georgia and Alabama a 60 percent chance of above-normal precipitation, while temperatures lean toward near normal rather than unusually warm or cold. Look further out, to February through April of 2027, and the forecasters stop leaning at all — that stretch is listed as equal chances, meaning the signal is not strong enough to call.
The ground here is not starting dry. Columbus has recorded 43.64 inches of rain so far this year against a normal of 40.4 inches by this date, a little over three inches ahead of the pace. Additional winter rain lands on soil that has already had a decent year of it.
So what do you do with that? Two practical things. Keep a rain jacket in the truck through the winter rather than putting it away, because wet patterns in an El Niño cold season tend to come in waves rather than single days — that is true from LaGrange and Hamilton down through Columbus to Eufaula. And make sure you have a way to be woken up by a warning. Cold-season storm systems often cross west Georgia and east Alabama after dark, when a phone turned face down on a nightstand is the only thing standing between you and the news.
Stand on a dock at Lake Harding this month and the water will be flat and the sky will be empty of anything tropical. The season that deserves your attention is the one on the other side of the calendar.
Right now in Columbus, Georgia
56°Temperature
47°Dew point
72%Humidity
4 mphWind — northeast
30.22"Pressure
The next seven days
Day
High
Low
Rain
Conditions
TODAY
79°
62°
6%
Partly Sunny
TUE
81°
65°
12%
Mostly Cloudy
WED
79°
63°
80%
Showers And Thunderstorms
THU
80°
56°
26%
Chance Showers And Thunderstorms
FRI
78°
50°
6%
Mostly Sunny
SAT
75°
47°
4%
Mostly Sunny
SUN
74°
45°
14%
Mostly Sunny
Written by the CNAW2 weather desk from CNAW2 weather desk data. Last updated November 2, 2026 at 6:49 AM Eastern. Covering Columbus and Phenix City, Auburn–Opelika, LaGrange, Eufaula and the rest of the 19-county CNAW viewing area.
